China viewed U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan as a direct challenge. As tensions ratchet up, Taiwan is preparing for war. Are its people ready?
Last week, Nancy Pelosi became the first House Speaker in a quarter century to visit Taiwan. China viewed Pelosi’s trip as a direct challenge. As tensions over the self-governed island ratchet up, Taiwan is preparing for war. But are its people ready?
Firing range sounds
That’s a group of people…at a shooting range earlier this summer in Taiwan.
They’re getting ready for war. And with good reason…
AP: We witnessed a steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activities here in Taiwan. That includes PLA aircrafts flying near Taiwan in record numbers in recent months.
Aircraft sound
Taiwan’s a self-governing island that claims its independence, but that China has long viewed as its own.
Much of the world doesn’t have diplomatic ties to Taiwan, including the United States ….but last week, Nancy Pelosi became the first Speaker of the House in a quarter century to visit the island.
Nancy: our delegation to send an unequivocal message: America stands with Taiwan
But China viewed Pelosi’s trip ….as a direct challenge.
I'm Gustavo Arellano. You're listening to THE TIMES, essential news from the LA Times.
It's Monday, August 8, 2022.
Today… as tensions over Taiwan ratchet up…the island is preparing for war. But are the people ready?
Gustavo: Joining me to talk about this is our Beijing correspondent Stephanie Yang. Stephanie, welcome to The Times.
Stephanie: Thanks for having me.
Gustavo: So Stephanie, Speaker Pelosi surprised supporters and opponents alike with her Taiwan trip.…but how did the Taiwanese respond? And how did China respond?
Stephanie: Yeah. So if you look at the responses from China, Taiwan and US side, they were kind of all across the board.
Stephanie: So, uh, for the US perspective, I think there was a lot of vocal support and opposition to Pelosi's visit because, you know, some people were worried that it would further inflame tensions with China.
BIDEN: The military thinks it's not a good idea right now, but, uh, I, I don't know what the status of it is.
Stephanie: Others were worried that if she backed down, it would make the US look weak on China.
MCCONELL: I think it's important that the speaker did go to Taiwan. I don't think that Chinese get to tell members of Congress where they can go.
Stephanie: So there was already that conflict going on internally within US commentators, experts and politicians. And then if you look at the China side…
China foreign minister: Mandarin tape: From Chinese’s perspective…
Stephanie: China was responding very strongly in opposition of Pelosi's visit because they saw it as a challenge to their territorial claim on Taiwan. And so the accused the US of interfering in their internal affairs, challenging their sovereignty. And because of that, they were warning of severe consequences. If the visit did go through and it seems that they are going forward with retaliation, economically, politically and militarily.
AP TAPE: China has begun live fire military drills in the waters around Taiwan. State media says the exercises are joint operations focused on blockade, sea target assault, strike on ground targets and airspace control.
Stephanie: And then for the Taiwanese..
TAIWAN OFFICIAL IN MANDARIN: Regarding Nancy Pelosi…
Stephanie: The interesting thing is that, you know, Taiwanese people here they've gotten so used to hearing these threats from China, you know, the latest rhetoric coming out of China really isn't anything new to them. A lot of them, you know, also are very proud to see Pelosi coming to visit, you know, it’s a strong signal of support as well as validation of, you know, Taiwan standing on the international stage.
There was some protest, uh, to her arrival from pro-China people who support unification with mainland China.
Um, and then there was. A lot of welcome and excitement from people who, uh, were just really thrilled to see such a high ranking official from the US come visit.
Stephanie: But even though people in Taiwan were generally unfazed by China's latest rhetoric, we have been becoming increasingly concerned about war over the past year. And with Pelosi visiting Taiwan, those tensions are only getting more and more strained. So, you know what we've seen over the past year, uh, ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, is that there is a group of people in Taiwan who are trying to get ready for a potential military conflict in any way possible. And so that includes first aid classes, that includes civil defense seminars, uh, and for some people it includes learning how to use guns.
Gustavo: Getting ready…how?
Stephanie: So this shooting session was in this old warehouse on the outskirts of Taipei city up this big mountain road.
Stephanie: And it was about a dozen new participants for this shooting class, which had actually been around for years.
Stephanie: But now what // the organizers we're seeing was that there has been increased interest since about February this year, because a lot of people in Taiwan saw the invasion by Russia of Ukraine and started worrying about their own situation as an island that has to deal with a very aggressive, powerful neighbor staking a territorial claim.
Stephanie: The participants were there to learn how to shoot guns because that's something that not a lot of people in Taiwan have experience with. But with this situation, essentially their best bet was to be shooting BB guns or airsoft guns with plastic pellets. And so that's what they were there to learn.
Stephanie: The first part of the class went over some basic safety and then they spent much of the rest of the seven to eight hours of class with target practice.
Stephanie: Essentially improving their aim and learning how to use these guns.
Gustavo: Wait, so to learn how to use guns, they were actually shooting BB guns.
Stephanie: Yes… so I asked some of these people about it too, and you know, it may seem silly to outsiders, particularly people in the US where we have this very big gun culture. BBut in Taiwan,, that's essentially non-existent. Taiwan has very strict gun control laws. It's something that, you know, people don't come into contact with // ever. t's something that you don't want to come into contact with, but that thinking really changed for a lot of Taiwanese people because they started thinking more and more about self defense and the things that they could do to learn to defend themselves if there was some sort of Ukraine-like invasion on their island.
Stephanie: So while I was at the class, I was asking people, you know, why they wanted to attend. And I met this woman, Caran, who used to be a financial analyst, and has been living in, uh, Taipei for years on her family’s farm there.
Stephanie: And she actually heard about this class through a friend, who had attended previously.
Stephanie: The funny thing is she didn't actually know that it was // BB guns. She went there assuming that it was real guns and kind of got a surprise when she realized that the pistols were not real.
Stephanie: She told me that this idea was really triggered by the fact that she was watching all of these Ukrainians pick up guns and defend their country and she thought, maybe it's time for me to learn something similar.
Stephanie: And so we're seeing people uh take all of these // new measures to try and prepare themselves, you know, going to seminars, first aid classes. And so this target practice is, you know, one portion of that. That people are trying to learn something new in case // the worst happens.
Stephanie: The organizer told me that about half of the new participants are coming there because of fears of the geopolitical situation and the possibility of a military attack. And so, seeing what's happening in Ukraine, I think for a lot of people, it has enhanced, you know, their own worries about civil defense preparedness.
Gustavo: We'll be right back.
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Gustavo: So Stephanie, Taiwan's been living under China's shadow for decades. Now the balance between the two, the stare down really has just been so fraught. How did it get this way?
Stephanie: Taiwan is an island of about 23 million people off the east coast of China, which actually has a very long history of being occupied by different forces, from the Dutch to the Japanese to the Qing Dynasty, which is where China traces its claim back to. // But it wasn't actually until 1949, when the Chinese nationalist party fled mainland China after the civil war and considered Taiwan, as you know, the rightful China, where they essentially set up base. After the Chinese nationalist party, also known as the KMT, took up permanent residents in Taiwan, // they actually put it under martial law. In the time since then what's happened is that martial law was lifted and they actually became this flourishing democracy. So now the communist party in Beijing has made it a priority to take Taiwan.
GUSTAVO: And what was the role of the US during this time?
Stephanie: The US used to be aligned with Taiwan Republic of China, but then in the late ‘70s it switched its alliance to the People's Republic of China in Beijing and the communist party. So now the US stance is strategic ambiguity, where it really walks the line between recognizing that Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory and also offering support to Taiwan where it can if it needs to defend itself. And then in recent years, President Xi Jinping has really emphasized his desire to unify with Taiwan, making it a key priority in his agenda, particularly in his goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Gustavo: So what’s happened to the military SINCE Taiwan transitioned from martial law to democracy back in ‘87?
Stephanie: Because of Taiwanese history of martial rule, the people here have a very complicated relationship with the military. Today, a lot of people have complaints about it being, you know, a waste of time. They're being a lot of accidents. It being not very prepared for any sort of /// eventual conflict. And actually there used to be a mandate that young Taiwanese men had to serve for two years in the military. And that was so unpopular that it actually got paired down to about four months now. And it's only recently, you know, with what's happening in Ukraine that people have started to consider lengthening that again.
Gustavo: And now Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made it seem possible, even likely, that China could do the same to Taiwan.
Stephanie: Yeah, it's quite a hot topic of debate right now, you know, what might happen in an attack, what that would look like when that could happen. And so some defense experts have put that at a potential scenario that we could see as early as the next five years. At the same time, you know, President Xi has emphasized that he wants peaceful reunification. Unfortunately, that seems unlikely given that increasingly more and more Taiwanese people, according to polls, are against unification with the Chinese mainland and see themselves as a different identity.
Gustavo: So Stephanie, given Taiwan’s long, tense history with China and its own history of martial law, and NOW with the Russia Ukraine conflict bringing the real possibility of war to the forefront of Taiwanese…How's the government responding? Like, what's their plan in case China does attack?
Stephanie: Uh, so the Taiwanese government has tried to, you know, assure the public that they are preparing for any sort of potential conflict. They've been increasing military spending, they've pursued this, what they consider or is defined as a porcupine strategy, you know, investing in concealable weapons that are anti-ship, anti-air to defend off sea and air attacks, essentially making any sort of attack too prickly or painful // to really pursue for any enemies.
Gustavo: What about the United States? You know, as you mentioned earlier, the US has always had an interest in the future of Taiwan. How are officials here monitoring the situation.
Stephanie: So the US policy of strategic ambiguity means that the US does not say if it would come to Taiwan's military aid if China were to attack unprovoked, or if Taiwan were to outright declare independence. And this goal is to help keep the status quo, keep things as they are currently, which is also, you know, the preference of the majority of the island. That being said, a lot of rhetoric has been ratcheted up in, in recent years, as you know, US, China tensions and // China-Taiwan tensions have increased. So I think people have heightened sensitivity to this topic right now.
Stephanie: For example, last month, president Biden said at a Tokyo news conference that the US would get involved militarily to defend Taiwan. So those comments sparked debate about whether the official stance has changed on Taiwan. Officials later clarified that it has not, but it also highlighted, you know, this concern that people are feeling in Taiwan about whether the US would come to their aid. Interestingly enough, following Ukraine, more and more people are assuming or not willing to rely on that assumption. Hence, you know, their increased emphasis on their own self defense.
Gustavo: We'll be right back
Gustavo: Stephanie, why has President Xi Jingping and the Chinese communist party more broadly… been so obsessed with Taiwan all these decades?
Stephanie: So the Chinese communist party considers Taiwan as part of its territory and something to be brought back into the fold eventually. And so we've seen in Taiwanese history, you know, at times when it seems like the island is pulling more apart from the mainland, for example, // the um democratic elections and the election of a party that, is more pro-independence. You've seen these kinds of threats // increase because they don't want Taiwan to consider themselves independent and it gets to a point where they're openly declaring themselves independent. // So President Xi Jinping and the Chinese companies party have always considered Taiwan as a part of their territory that will be reunited with the motherland eventually. And so, you know, being able to reunify and bring back together, all these parts of what Xi Jinping considers, you know, the great Chinese nation, would be a huge accomplishment for him and his agenda. We can already see that with, you know, what's happening in Hong Kong. Earlier this month, President Xi took his first // trip outside the mainland since the pandemic to go, essentially, declare victory on the one party, two systems model and emphasize their complete control over Hong Kong after, you know, years of these pro-democracy protests and the subsequent crackdown on any sort of dissent.
Gustavo: What would China gain though from getting Taiwan back – what they call reunification? China's humongous. Taiwan is just a small little island seemingly.
Stephanie: For one, there is a point of pride for China in order to, you know, reclaim what it sees as historically theirs.At the same time, Taiwan is a very important island strategically because it's the first in what is known as the chain of islands. And one of the reasons why countries like the US and Japan are so worried about China potentially taking Taiwan, is that it could give them a very strong, strategic placement militarily if there were to be further conflict.
Gustavo: How serious are China's threats then to the island?
Stephanie: Uh..so that depends on who you ask. Some people, you know, are a little bit more skeptical that China could do anything in the near term. Particularly because, you know, as we've seen with Russia and Ukraine, a lot of Western countries have rallied together very forcefully to implement sanctions and punishment on Russia for what it has done in Ukraine. I think that that is going to be a major consideration for Xi Jinping and China if they were to attempt any sort of similar military attack. At the same time // one of the main differences in Taiwan compared to Ukraine, is that Taiwan has this natural barrier of defenses, namely that it's an island. And so it has the Taiwan strait separating it from mainland China. That would be a huge hurdle for China to overcome if it wanted to invade in a way similar to that of Russia to Ukraine. And so that also adds to Taiwan's military strategy in that it's focusing on fending off attacks from air and sea, rather than, you know, putting all the emphasis on land troops.
Gustavo: So if China has wanted Taiwan for decades and China, of course now, a global superpower, is the fear of ending up sanctioned like Russia the only thing holding the Chinese government back? Or is it something else?
Stephanie: So one of the things that China will have to take into consideration is the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China right now is in a very precarious position economically because it's suffered from these, uh, stop and start COVID lockdowns. That's really taken a toll on industrial operations, consumer spending, business sentiment in the country. At the same time, following the invasion of Ukraine, you're already seeing the economic impacts of that ripple out globally. And so I think that's another thing that China has to take into consideration is whether the world can take another war at this time. Obviously the economic ramifications would be huge. Also the political ramifications, you know, of instability for China itself, which, you know, puts a lot of emphasis on political and economic stability domestically. And then one more factor that, you know, people are weighing when it comes to Taiwan in any sort of military // conflict here is Taiwan's key role in the global supply chain in its production of semiconductors. // So semiconductors are these tiny computer chips that go into everything. From // iPhones to computers, to cars. // And in the past couple of years,a shortage of them has really crimped global production of a lot of different consumer goods. If there were to be some sort of military conflict here, the fallout would be even worse. And so, from the Taiwanese perspective, that's one of the things that essentially is, you know, protecting the island, is that their particular semiconductor industry is so important that hopefully that would be a deterrent to anyone wanting to attack.
Gustavo: Stephanie, you mentioned earlier that President Biden said that the United States would stand with Taiwan in the event that China would invade Taiwan, but his administration has gone to some pretty extreme lengths to avoid aiding Ukraine in a way that would spark a direct conflict with Russia. So would it do the same for Taiwan?
Stephanie: I think that that's a question that is gonna be a huge factor in any sort of military conflict that would play out. And I think from the US side, it's something that would be a deterrent for China, something that would make it, you know, think twice about taking any action. The US and Taiwan have this strengthening relationship at the time, you know, through, through trade and through diplomatic relations, and the US // is committed to selling Taiwan weapons to defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act. At the same time, you know, people in Taiwan, they've noticed that, you know, President Biden hasn't sent any military aid to Ukraine. And I think that's one of the things that, you know, makes them worry that the US might not offer military assistance if there were an attack here.
Gustavo: Meanwhile, the people that you talked to at that, uh, BB gun shooting practice, how do they feel about all this?
Stephanie: So among, uh, Taiwanese people who are preparing for the possibility of war, it still seems that, generally, they think the likelihood of something happening is pretty low. But I think, very similarly among all of them: they just wanna be prepared for the worst. They wanna think about how to defend their homes, how to defend their families and what they can do to contribute if the worst-case scenario happens here.
Gustavo: Stephanie, thank you so much for this conversation.
Stephanie: Thank you.
Gustavo: And that's it for this episode of THE TIMES, essential newsdaily news from the LA Times. Shannon Lin was the jefa on this episode and Mario Diaz mixed and mastered it.
Our show’s produced by Shannon Lin, Denise Guerra, Kasia Broussalian, David Toledo and Ashlea Brown. Our editorial assistants are Madalyn Amato and Carlos De Loera. Our intern is Surya Hendry.
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