Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman is trying to transform his country, but the social liberalization comes with the harsh crackdowns on dissenters.
Something unexpected is going on in traditionally conservative Saudi Arabia.
Over the last few years, the kingdom has been announcing a loosening of social restrictions at a surprising rate. Movie theaters are reopening, new professional opportunities for women are popping up and the country is hosting Western-style music festivals.
It’s all part of a plan by the country’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who says he wants to dramatically transform his country.
Today, how the prince’s push comes with a price: While dancing in Saudi Arabia might be in these days, political dissent is still most definitely out. Read the full transcript here.
Host: Gustavo Arellano
Guests: L.A. Times Middle East bureau chief Nabih Bulos
More reading:
Dancing is in, dissent is out as Saudi Arabia’s crown prince transforms his country
Saudi Arabia is giving itself an extreme makeover with ‘giga-projects.’ Will it work?
Saudis sentence U.S. citizen to 16 years over tweets
Gustavo: Something unexpected is going on in traditionally conservative Saudi Arabia.
Gustavo: Over the past few years, the kingdom has been announcing a loosening of social restrictions at a surprising rate
News: Change is underway in Saudi Arabia.
AP: Saudi Arabia has lifted some restrictions on women traveling in the ultra-conservative Muslim kingdom
AP: The first stadium opens its doors to women in the Red Sea city of Jeddah today.
Gustavo: That includes reopening movie theaters, opening up new professional opportunities for women and hosting Western-style music festivals.
It's all part of a plan by the country's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to dramatically transform his country.
But this push only goes so far. While dancing in Saudi Arabia might be in these days, political dissent is still most definitely out.
I'm Gustavo Arellano. You're listening to The Times: Essential News from the L.A. Times. It's Monday, Jan. 16, 2023.
Today: Are social reforms bringing meaningful change to Saudi Arabia…or just masking a leader’s moves to consolidate his political power?
Here to talk about the extent of the kingdom's makeovers is my L.A. Times colleague, foreign correspondent, Nabih Bulos. Nabih, welcome to The Times.
Nabih Bulos: Thank you for having me.
Gustavo: So I saw that you went to Saudi Arabia at the end of this past year. What'd you do there?
Nabih: So I had gone there for two weeks and I spent some time around in Jeddah at this music festival called Balad Beast.
AMBI: I'm here right now in Jeddah, and this is the second night of Balad Beast, a large music festival taking place in Jeddah’s Old Quarter.
Nabih: This was very much a sort of hip-hop, pop, electronic music, everything. It was, it was really something. I mean, it was huge.
It should be noted that there was no alcohol, right? So everything was kind of fueled by caffeine. And everyone's eyes were kind of just popped up because they're so over-caffeinated, they have these Rock Star energy drinks and Red Bull, they stayed up until 2 or 3 or 4 a.m. I mean, I left at some point, frankly, but people were partying hard and they were having a great time.
AMBI: It's hard to overstate how much of a surprise this is these days.
AMBI: And one must say, this would have been impossible a few years ago.
Gustavo: And why stop by this festival? I mean, what was so cool about it? Was it like a Coachella or something?
Nabih: Okay, so this is Saudi Arabia, right? I mean, when I was a child growing up in Jordan, the image of Saudi was just this very, very religious place, you know, as the birthplace of Islam, the place where people would go and do the hajj, or umrah, right? Just the pilgrimage or the little pilgrimage.
And it had this very, very austere image of a place where women cannot drive, women don't really have many rights. They're always wearing a niqab, this black face covering. This was something very different from that image. Very, very different.
I mean, the notion of women out dancing, to have men and women dancing together, just the whole thing was just such a shift change from what Saudi Arabia is usually seen as from the outside and indeed from how the country saw itself only a few years ago. And who was responsible for it ultimately is of course, Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince.
You know, this music festival is part of this larger vision by the prince called Vision 2030. And, one big part of it is opening Saudi Arabia up.
And what that means is, just having all these new entertainment options.
In fact, so much so that the prince opened up in 2016 something called the General Entertainment Authority. And that thing began with the idea of making Saudi Arabia into an entertainment destination, but also to create entertainment options inside the country itself. Which is to say that, they would support creators, that would support artists, also be open to bringing in artists from abroad too. And so what this has meant is really thousands and, and it's true, thousands of events have been held in the last five years. You know, in Jeddah we had Balad Beast there. A few days earlier it was the Red Sea International Film Festival.
And after that you had the Dakar Rally happening, right? This is all within a few weeks of each other. In Riyadh, in the meantime, you also have other things happening. You have something called Riyadh Season, this thing called the Winter Wonderland, which was like sort of a winter themed amusement park that is quite large. You also have Riyadh Boulevard, which is kind of like a world fair thing, where you had different pavilions from different countries. And of course you have a whole series of concerts happening and a whole series of events.
I mean, really, it's quite overwhelming.
Gustavo: But I don't understand this focus on bringing all these entertainment opportunities to Saudi Arabia? I mean, what problem was the government trying to solve here?
Nabih: The problem was that people would go well either to Dubai or to Bahrain for their entertainment, and that was a lot of money being lost from the state's treasury.
And Saudi Arabia, it had no theaters, it had no movie places, it had no concerts. And so they changed all that with the intention of basically creating entertainment options at home and making Saudis spend their money at home. And it really is something for a country that up to a few years ago was considered a hermit kingdom.
Gustavo: But beyond the concerts and all this fun, what other changes or social reforms are part of this Vision 2030?
Nabih: I mean, obviously the big one is just that you see women everywhere, right? And not just sort of within the club, but they're also uncovered, you know, with the hair and they're walking around and they're talking and they're very visible and they are really a part of everyday life, which is to say that you see them, in the supermarket and in other places. And they're working behind the counter, right. You see them as waitresses. You see them as hostesses. You see them really everywhere at this point.
I mean, the percentage of women joining the Saudi workforce now exceeds 35% and that's more than double the rate that it was five years ago, according to official statistics. That's just a huge change already right there on the streets.
But it's really also a change in how the kingdom sees itself. I mean, this is now a place where they're trying really quite hard to shift away from oil, and you see people working everywhere, right? This is not like, for example, Qatar, where you see very few Qataris working in service jobs.
This is not, say the Emirates, where you see really very few Emiratis working in those jobs. No, Saudi Arabia is a proper country in the sense that you have 36 million people – and yes, there are rich people, but there are also poor Saudis – and there you see them actually working in these jobs, and it really is quite striking, both men and women.
Gustavo: Coming up after the break, what Vision 2030 really means for Saudi Arabia.
Gustavo: Nabih, before the break, you were talking about Vision 2030, and all these unprecedented social reforms that Mohammed bin Salman is trying to implement.
And it seems like a lot for such a traditionally conservative place and going against decades if not centuries of social mores. Does the prince have the power to implement all of this?
Nabih: Well, in a nutshell, yes.
The prince came to power in the beginning in 2015 when his father became king. He was appointed as deputy crown prince, I believe, and also defense minister. So that was already quite a powerful portfolio right there.
News Clip: He was the youngest defense minister in the world. Some have called him assertive and quick to act.
Nabih: And then in 2017, he was appointed crown prince after having basically outmaneuvered his rivals in the various Saudi families that were also vying for the role.
News Clip: With his father's support, he's run the state oil company, overseen public investments and been involved in the kingdom's economic policies.
Nabih: And then he basically cemented his power with this anti-corruption purge where he really put a lot of princes and a lot of important figures on notice.
News Clip: Remarkable times in Saudi Arabia, there's been an unprecedented anti-corruption purge with sweeping arrests of senior politicians and business leaders and members of the royal family.
Nabih: And this was an important time, in 2017, the crown prince detained princes and dozens of others in the Ritz Carlton.
News Clip: They're not being thrown into some dark dungeon. They are reportedly staying in great comfort at the Ritz Carlton Hotel.
Nabih: And critics would call it a power grab or a shakedown where he basically threatened people to pay back the money they had stolen from state coffers or through corruption.
Or face consequences.
News Clip: Everybody inside sees this as the hand of the very ambitious, dynamic and controversial crown prince.
Nabih: But after that, it was clear that he had also consolidated his power over the security apparatus in the government.
So, yes, in terms of the government, at least he is in control of all levers of power. And in fact, recently he was appointed as the prime minister, which cemented his power even further.
So he is definitely able to do those reforms.
Gustavo: So is Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 working?
Nabih: Well, to be fair, it is perhaps too early to say. It is working in the sense that they are spending a lot, a lot of money. And they are trying their damnedest, I have to say, to open up the country to tourism. And at the same time, there are people who are working more and more, right? There is more stuff happening outside of oil. And it should also be said that even if, let's say the greater aim of Vision 2030 fails, it is undoubtedly true that for girls, you know, this generation, it is just again, a total sea change and I'd be hard pressed to see that going back.
But – and of course there's a but, right? – this social liberalization has been accompanied by political crackdown. He's managed to really silence rivals very effectively. They're much more afraid to speak because frankly, the consequences for doing so are far higher now. There is, of course, a very, very, strong police state – I mean, there's no room for dissent at this point. That seems clear. I mean, people you would talk to would say that, before, there was perhaps, you know, some space to speak.
Now, I mean, especially if you're a journalist or a commentator, it's to the point where, you know, if you're not enthusiastically cheering on enough, you might get in trouble for having questioned the vision.
Gustavo: Yeah it's just … this bifurcation between yes, liberalizing, at least, society in Saudi Arabia, a lot of people would say, Oh cool, that's really good. But on the other hand, Bin Salman is probably most infamous in this country for being linked to the murder of a U.S.-based journalist a few years ago.
Nabih: Right, right, I mean, we covered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. And it should be said Jamal Khashoggi was, I mean, he's been billed as a critic, but he was, I must say, a very mild critic, and for the most part was actually quite in line with a lot of what was being done in Saudi Arabia. And his killing was brutal, of course. And it should be noted that the CIA had concluded that it was Bin Salman who had ordered the killing, and he of course denies it and says it was rogue elements within a security apparatus. But, it’s important to note that MBS is in power at this point and he will remain to be so.
And a great example of this comes from the religious establishment.
I mean, if you consider how things used to be, you had the religious police, right, they were called the Muṭawwaʿūn. And they would go around malls or streets and they would sort of beat up men and women if they were wearing things, you know, which were inappropriate or talking to each other, if they're not married or have some sort of blood relation.
I mean, things were very bad and there were a few instances where the religious police would basically chase people down. And so these were just unpopular figures in Saudi society, especially among the young. And then Bin Salman came and basically overnight said that they're, they're not allowed to do this anymore. That their only role is to give advice. Right?
That they have to basically just be completely defanged and stop the patrols. And stop the patrols they did. And really any cleric who spoke out against this decision was quickly imprisoned. Or made to repent in some way or recant their statement.
I mean, that's a measure of how powerful he had become. And that he was able to defang the religious police as an institution. That is a huge deal in Saudi Arabia. And he did it really overnight and, and without a peep from anyone. It really is all in the hands of Mohammed bin Salman.
And of course, it's not just on the clerical class or the religious class. Right? There is also a political aspect to it where anyone who criticizes MBS or the royal family or these various policies, right, on Twitter or elsewhere, is really again just pursued and shut down. And so in August, we also saw this Saudi woman was given 34 years in prison for using Twitter.
And when I asked Saudi authorities about this, I was told that, of course, it was much more about Twitter, but they refused to give details. This speaks to a, a very intolerant atmosphere when it comes to anyone expressing dissent.
Gustavo: So how do people in Saudi Arabia feel about this crackdown? All these social reforms that Mohammad bin Salman has implemented... are they worth it despite the repressive measures?
Nabih: So with that being said too, and, this is something you hear from young people all over the country, is that without doing that, without him going in such a heavy-handed way, right, there is no way those reforms would happen.
The idea is that he's also done things which are really very popular with young people, and it's really quite striking in that regard in that most of the people who are criticizing are of the older guard or people who have actually suffered the consequences of being excised and being put on notice by the prince. But most of the young people I spoke to, I must say, everyone seemed very happy with the changes.
And of course it makes sense. I mean, if you are now a 16-year-old girl, for example, right, in school, it's just a total sea change for you from 10 years ago, and so therefore, I mean, of course you would support those changes.
Gustavo: More after the break.
Gustavo: Nabih, Saudi Arabia has always been a huge player in the Gulf, largest country by far. So I'm curious, what has Mohammed bin Salman's rise to power and his attempts at both reform and consolidating his power meant for his country's neighbors?
Nabih: So let’s say he had a rocky start.
I mean, when he first came to power in 2015 he launched the war in Yemen, or more accurately he didn't launch the war in Yemen but he took it to another phase.
AP: The Saudi-led coalition has waged an airstrike campaign for more than two months.
Nabih: He brought in really this coalition to start attacking Yemen and that's when we started seeing the state of siege that really continues really to this day.
AP: The country of some 25 million people is dealing with shortages of food, water, medicine and electricity.
Nabih: And also he had this run-in with the prime minister of Lebanon. In fact, he was accused of kidnapping him.
AP: The announcement from Prime Minister Hariri that he was resigning really took the country by surprise. And the fact that he announced it in a televised address from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, not from Lebanon, made it even more surprising.
Nabih: And there was also another situation in Jordan where he was involved in this attempt to basically bring in King Abdullah of Jordan's half-brother, Prince Hamzeh, to try to take over his place. Oh. And of course there was the Qatar blockade, right? That happened for a few years and then finally was let go.
AP: The emir of Qatar embraced the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrived in Saudi Arabia for a summit aimed at resolving the rift.
Nabih: And so perhaps it's fair to say that in his earlier rise to power, he had overstepped and he had basically gone for this more robust foreign policy that often backfired.
But it should be said that since then things have calmed down considerably. He's tried to mend fences with Qatar. In fact, we saw him at the World Cup.
And the same thing is happening with Jordan and other places. I mean, now there really is a focus on trying to forge links with those countries and to basically use business and commerce to do so.
Gustavo: All this upheaval in the region, both the foreign policy and what's happening within Saudi Arabia, how is it influencing the country's relationship with the United States?
Nabih: Well, it's hard to say that the relationship is good. Of course we've seen outwardly that the relationship is very bad between President Biden and MBS. And this remains to be so.
AP: A meeting to repair one of the world's most important diplomatic relationships has started with a fist bump.
AP: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tapping President Biden's fist. There was a little evidence of warmth between the men, and reporters were kept well away during their meeting.
Nabih: People who sort of read body language, I mean, they had a field day when Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia last month, because, you know, obviously that was a very, very different kind of greeting than the somewhat tepid fist bump that was given to Joe Biden when he visited, right?.
Gustavo: Yeah. What happened when the president of China visited Saudi Arabia?
Nabih: So I actually came in to cover that specifically. And it should be said we weren't allowed to be on the grounds when Xi actually arrived and said hello to MBS, but it was of course broadcast on state TV.
I mean there's just a lot of pomp and circumstance,
You had the limousine coming in, you had Xi Jinping stepping out onto this red carpet.
And it was all very, very sort of, orchestrated to be, I mean the ultimate in pomp and circumstance. And then he was driven to the palace at some point in time to meet MBS. And when Xi steps out, there's MBS waiting for him and they have a warm five-second handshake, as opposed to this fist bump. And of course everyone is smiling and everyone is happy. It's a much grander welcome, right, for Xi Jinping than had been given to President Biden a few months before that.
I mean, there's a sense that Saudi Arabia is turning away from the U.S. but it should be said that this is at some level a superficial reading, because that relationship is really very strong, and the fact is it's institutional at this point.
So the relationship with Saudi and the U.S. first began actually with Roosevelt, so really, I mean, you know, in the ’30s and ’40s, we're talking a long, long time ago, and much as it is now, it was girded on oil, which is to say that, I mean, Saudi Arabia has a lot of it. The U.S. needs it. And it's all about guaranteeing world supply. That idea is the U.S. would be the guarantor of Saudi security. And what that means in practice is, that obviously you have a large U.S. base, right, in Saudi Arabia. And the Saudi army uses U.S. equipment for the most part.
And then with that come of course, billions, if not trillions of dollars at this point, weapons contracts and maintenance and logistics and all these other things.
Things have been changing in more recent years, because Saudi Arabia at this point is, as I said, having a more robust foreign policy.
It's more interested in enforcing its own path, but also equally, right, this Vision 2030 requires a lot of money, which requires oil to have a certain price for Saudi Arabia to actually balance its budget, the price has to be, I believe, anywhere from $75 to $80.
And the way this goes is, is that, at this point, Saudi Arabia will basically, follow the policies that will keep the oil at that level, right, regardless of what anyone else wants, because again, the demands are huge on its treasury, right? Just for the sheer amount of investment that it's been doing.
Gustavo: That's really interesting, and it makes me think...what's next for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia?
Nabih: So it's a changing relationship, in the sense that now there's also a feel that Saudi Arabia is more interested in having more of a peer relationship with the U.S., right? Not so much a, I mean, one who provides the oil and, and you give us protection.
No. Now there's a sense that there is a desire to move beyond that. And the fact is that, it'll continue to be important because obviously with the Ukraine war and sort of oil supplies all over the world being disrupted by that, Saudi Arabia is the biggest game in town, and it remains to be so. But even more beyond that, Saudi Arabia now, is in the middle of a huge construction boom.
They're spending, really, tens of billions of dollars. Hundreds of billions of dollars, in fact. One estimate said that the total, I think, value of awards is about $719 billion, of which only 4% have been spent, and that is a gargantuan amount of money, and the U.S. will definitely be involved in trying to get some of that. Whether publicly, right, as government or privately as businesses.
Gustavo: Finally Nabih, what do you make of all of this? What do you make of, uh, Mohammed bin Salman's strategy, Vision 2030, all of that. I mean, what does it mean to have a country like Saudi Arabia, basically experiment with the way it governs itself and the way it's ran?
Nabih: Look, the thing is that our view of Saudi Arabia again, is that this is a dictatorship and that it's very hard to speak out and that anyone who speaks out is gonna get quashed and it's all terrible, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But I have to say, when visiting the country, right, you don't get that sense at all.
People are really, I must say excited to be involved at this point, and the Vision 2030, as farcical as it may sound, sometimes people are really actually quite interested in engaging in it.
You're seeing, as I said, women in the workplace. Oftentimes you see them occupying half of the office, I mean, this is not mere window dressing. At the same time you are seeing all these businesses open, you are seeing a sea change in social mores, right?
That is a big deal in the country. And unlike other countries, I mean, Saudi Arabia actually has 36 million people – that is a large number of people. And with those kinds of resources, they should be able to achieve something proper, right? Something lasting.
And I must say, I mean, I hope they do, with the understanding of all the questionable practices done by the government. But it should be said that the Middle East is full of such governments, unfortunately. And then the question, comes up as this, would he have been able to have done all these reforms without having such a political crackdown? It's unclear, to be honest with you. And this isn't to say that it's then justified, but it does sort of raise questions as to what we think or how things would've worked otherwise.
Gustavo: Nabih, thank you so much for this conversation.
Nabih: Thank you for having me.
Gustavo: That's it for this episode of The Times: Essential News from the LA Times. Kasia Broussalian was the jefa on this episode, and it was edited by Jazmín Aguilera, and Mario Diaz mixed and mastered it. Our show's produced by Denise Guerra, Kasia Broussalian, David Toledo and Ashlea Brown. Our editorial assistants are Roberto Reyes and Nicolas Perez. Our fellow is Helen Li. Our engineers are Mario Diaz, Mark Nieto and Mike Heflin. Our editor is Kinsee Morlan. Our executive producers are Jazmín Aguilera, Shani Hilton and Heba Elorbany. And our theme music is by Andrew Eapen. I'm Gustavo Arellano. We'll be back Wednesday, with all the news and desmadre. Gracias.